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This is a tough one from a match market perspective. All three outcomes look possible and are priced up accordingly. Bournemouth look a confident outfit in their current mood, moving to six games unbeaten with their draw at Fulham whilst Southampton do possess the higher level of quality within their ranks. Fence job this one.
Gary O’Neil has made some very intelligent football calls since taking the job – one of those has been to get the very dangerous Phillip Billing playing higher up the pitch in support of Dominic Solanke.
He has scored three goals in his last five games and assisted Solanke for the opening goal at Fulham in what was a very silky piece of play. The 11/10 with Sky Bet deserves plenty of respect for him to have at least one shot on target.
One swallow does not make a summer. One result shouldn’t mask longer-term problems. I’m against Liverpool here.
For my money the market has been influenced far too much by Liverpool’s result against Manchester City.
Are they now back to their best? Despite their fantastically brave and intense performance on Super Sunday, I want to see them back it up before jumping on their bandwagon. Liverpool remain vulnerable defensively, keeping just three clean sheets in their last 13 Premier League games.
West Ham’s potency on the counter-attack and physicality at set-pieces makes them a dangerous opponent. They also arrive with some impressive attacking metrics from their last three fixtures where Jarrod Bowen, Gianluca Scamacca and Lucas Paqueta have looked very sharp. It’s equated to West Ham creating a total expected goals return of 5.64 and posting 60 shots at goal – no team have had more in that period.
I’m all over following the Hammers to make this a difficult evening for Jurgen Klopp’s men. My main play is a rather safety-first one by taking West Ham with a +2 goal start at 4/6 with Sky Bet, meaning as long as Liverpool don’t win by two or more goals we’ll have a winner. But both teams to score and over 2.5 goals in the match at Evens and West Ham to score two or more goals at 11/4 also are certainly worth serious consideration. For the purposes of a match prediction when assessing the prices, the away win stands out.
Chelsea did me a huge favour at the weekend, winning to nil at Aston Villa, but I’m happy to swerve them here at 4/6 with Sky Bet. Sunday was the first time I’ve watched Chelsea in the Graham Potter era and I was wholly underwhelmed, especially defensively. Aston Villa created an expected goals figure of 1.79, Chelsea had Kepa Arrizabalaga in ridiculous form and some individual mistakes from Villa handed Chelsea both their goals.
They were very suspect to direct balls down both channels as Aston Villa swung in 30 crosses and caused big issues. Brentford at home do like to get the ball forward quickly too, so this will be another test defensively for the Blues, who are playing their sixth game in 19 days and may just lack for intensity in the cut and thrust of a west London derby that means a lot to Bees.
This can be seen in the two meetings last season where Brentford performed exceptionally, falling to an unlucky 1-0 defeat at home before rampaging to a 4-1 win at Stamford Bridge. The expected goals data from those two meetings also presented that Brentford had Chelsea’s number, winning that battle 3.21 vs 2.03 across the two fixtures. The 6/5 with Sky Bet for Brentford to win or draw is a price I want on my side.
Combining a pro-Brentford result with the total match shots also makes huge appeal at the prices. Since promotion to the Premier League, Brentford’s matches at home average 24.7 match shots per 90 and I’d expect that number to be above average for a game involving an elite attack like Chelsea’s plus the intense derby atmosphere.
Brentford managed 34 shots themselves in the two fixtures with Chelsea last season with the game at Stamford Bridge producing a whopping 38 match shots. I’m happy to play the 27 or more shots which looks a lovely play and I’m happy to combine that with the 6/5 on Brentford double chance with double stakes being advised.
Source: Skysports
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